CE Delft has studied the question of what might happen if in 2015 and 2020 it transpires that European renewable energy and climate policy targets have not been met. More specifically, CE Delft has examined (1) the degree to which the various European energy and climate targets are ‘firm’ in the sense that they bring about accountable result obligations for member states that are binding, (2) the risks affecting the probability of the targets not being met, (3) the penalties the European Commission might demand if the targets are not met, and (4) the likely deterrent effect of such penalties. The main conclusions of the analysis are the following: